Hitherto cynical non-voters could be key to AAP forming a majority government

The party, Aam Aadmi Party, was named today (yaay!). On this day, let us look at some recent election trends to get a quantitative feel for it. All my data were sourced from statistics available at Election Commission’s website. While I agree that it is important for APP to continue attracting those who have been voting for one party or the other so far, this article is mainly about the importance of encouraging those cynics (who didnt want to vote for any party/candidate so far because they hate the very word ‘politician’ and rightly so) to go out and vote for AAP. It is these people that AAP should reach out to. AAP is a party of, by and for common citizens like you and me. So, we should take ownership of this movement/party and reach out to those potential voters!

All-India general election 2009:

Out of the 714 million who were eligible to vote (henceforth called ‘electors‘), only 420 million or 59% actually stepped out to vote (henceforth called ‘voters‘) and 41% of electors stayed back home. In the end, UPA (which includes Congress, TMC, DMK, NCP, NC, JMM, IUML etc) got 22% of total electors and NDA (which includes BJP, JDU, SS, RLD etc) got 15% of the total electors, Third Front (which included CPI, BJD, AIADMK, TDP etc) got 12% of electors and so on. This shows that, even if we manage to get just half of those 41% of cynics and lazy-bums to vote for AAP, we can swing the results greatly in our favor!

But there is a caveat: While the vote share difference between NDA and Third Front is just 3%, NDA managed to get 159 seats while Third Front could manage only 79 seats. This shows that, more than the national average vote share, it is the distribution of these over different constituencies that determine the number of seats won or lost. While it would be nice to have a constituency-wise analysis of party vote shares and non-voters, Election Commission website seems to be missing 2009’s data in Excel format (it has it in a pdf format though, but extracting data was a pain). So, I will instead analyse the 2004 general election data which is available in XLS format from their site. By the way, Wikipedia has some meta-data for 2009 elections but remember that the vote share stated there is a percentage over voters and not electors.

All-India general election 2004:

In 2004, 671 million were eligible to vote (electors) while only 58% of them actually voted (voters). Note these numbers are not very different to those from 2009 election.

The ‘constituencies’ tab gives some more info for each constituency
ST_CODE = state code ; PC_CODE = parliamentary constituency code ;

NON_VOTERS% = percentage of electors who did not vote ;
WINNER_VOT% = number of votes polled by the winning candidate as a percentage of electors (and not as a percentage of voters)

SWING% = (NON_VOTERS% – WINNER_VOT%) = shows the extent to which non-voters could influence the winning candidate, if they had chosen to vote. Any shade of green shows that SWING%>0, which means they could have elected any random candidate of their choice, if they so wished. Any shade of red shows SWING%<0, which means they might not have been able to elect their own candidate since their combined votes would have been less than the winner’s votes (but could have probably elected someone who had come second or third).

Number of constituencies with…
+80 < SWING% < +60 = 2
+40 < SWING% < +60 = 39                              -60 < SWING% < -40 =  2
+20 < SWING% < +40 = 172                             -40 < SWING% < -20 = 25
0 < SWING% < +20 =  187                            -20 < SWING% < 0     =  119

So, the total number of constituencies where NON_VOTERS could have easily elected any new candidate of their own choice is 400 (=2+39+172+187). For comparison, note that 272 is the golden number required to form a majority central government!

Delhi state assembly election 2008:

+40 < SWING% < +30 = 3
+30 < SWING% < +20 = 15
+20 < SWING% < +10 = 34
+10 < SWING% <  0     = 15                              -10 < SWING% < 0 = 2

In this case, the total number of constituencies where NON_VOTERS could have easily elected any new candidate of their own choice is 67. For comparison, note that 35 is the golden number required to form a majority state government in Delhi!

So, this pool of NON_VOTERS wield considerable power to change the system if they could somehow be convinced to exercise their vote. I am not sure if they themselves are aware of their own powers! In relation to this, you might also be interested in reading what one such non-voter said about Kejriwal in another one of my blog entries. So, let us all volunteer to reach out to this group and convince them to vote for AAP! If some say they genuinely cant make it to the nearest poll booth or consulate (if outside India), let us convince them to at least donate a good amount to our movement’s funds as reparation for that sin :-|

Shortlink to this blog entry: http://wp.me/p2PlLD-68


About Gu'an

Blog: iamamangoman DOT wordpress DOT com
Gallery | This entry was posted in Election, positive and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

11 Responses to Hitherto cynical non-voters could be key to AAP forming a majority government

  1. sarvesh says:

    trust with a proof.Good one

  2. prakash says:

    I think when you show this analysis to any so called educated illiterate (who doesn’t vote, I’m also one of them), he will be surprised at his own fate. He had the chance and power but couldn’t utilize it at all just with an assumption that my single vote can not change anything. I also believe in every polling station, on the ballot paper, you will see at least 10 people contesting and I don’t think it is hard to chose the best guy out of that list. We only look at the first 3 to 4 candidates from the established parties and curse ourselves and blame it on the political system.

    I think now its the time for all of us to be part of political system and choose the candidates wisely.

    • Gu'an says:

      I am glad if it could change at least one perso go and vote! :) Please show this to as many people as you can, who never vote.

  3. Jimmy says:

    Nice work but you cannot think of winning by people who do not vote. A high percentage of people who do not vote because they are unable to do so. Eg young people working in other states, studying in other states, people on travel, people who are not living in India but are citizens of India. People may be sick or a pooling booth is not there nearby. You cannot increase voters turnover by even 10-15%. Majority people who would vote for AAP are the ones who did not have a choice till now. I used to vote for Congress as i thought its better out of 2, but now i have a choice. Same will happen with people voting for BJP etc. Best of luck.

    • Gu'an says:

      That is true, but only a few of them could have genuinely not made it to the polling booth for those reasons you cite – 30-50% is just too many to all migrate far-off or on travel.

      Others, even if away, just didnt make that travel because, I believe, their options werent attractive enough for them to put in that extra effort or they thought just one vote doesnt make a difference or the risk of A or B winning doesnt matter. Still others (the cynics) thought all politicians are the same and their voting doesnt matter. As for those who genuinely cant vote, they should at least contribute funds! :D

      Good luck to us!

  4. Jagadish says:

    Good one…..More importantly – Voter registration is a onerous task…..and even after we submit the documents, the Voter ID Card does not come….AAP should take up this issue atleast in the major cities

  5. Jagadish says:

    Voter registration is the key…..Please concentrate on it

  6. R Shrivastava says:

    gr8 analysis indeed. But you have to make a dent in the mind of the non voter in a strong way, he has to vote for AAP, not be influenced by petty considerations of greed, selfish interest etc etc. To be fair, migrating populations don’t get to vote, nor do NRI or people working outside their states etc……some provision has to be made there.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s